Wholesale repeal of ObamaCare unlikely
Senator George Runner
Senator George Runner
Serving the 17th District which incorporates portions of the Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Ventura and Kern counties.

Five months after President Obama signed the "Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act," support for this legislation continues to diminish – with one recent poll revealing 60 percent of likely voters favoring full repeal.

Further waning of public support was just witnessed in Missouri earlier this month when 71 percent of voters favored an initiative to block imposition of the new health care law in Missouri. Even Congressional Democrats, who are locked in tough campaigns, have begun to shift their health care message.

Elsewhere, U.S. District Judge Hudson declined to throw out the Virginia attorney general's lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the federal health care law's individual mandate, allowing it to move ahead.

It seems unraveling health care "reform" is a matter of an election or two at most, or even a favorable court ruling. Furthermore, it appears the president may be incapable of resolving voter concerns before facing re-election. New Republican congressional majorities in 2011 – or even a new president in 2013 – should make repeal efforts nearly a sure thing.

However, unraveling ObamaCare will not be that simple.

Even if Republicans recapture the White House, the reality of newly implemented health care programs, borne of ObamaCare, makes wholesale repeal unlikely. Additionally, California, like many states, has begun conforming to elements of the federal health care "reform."

Already this year, the federal government has issued rules to prohibit health insurers from ending coverage for people when they become ill (known as rescission).

Other actions include:

Young adults may remain on their parents' plans until age 26.

Many states have taken up the federal government's offer to run "high-risk pools," with federal funding, for uninsurable adults with pre-existing conditions.

Seniors in Medicare Part D (the drug program) who have the "doughnut hole" coverage gap will get a $250 rebate, and qualifying small businesses will receive a tax credit for buying coverage for their employees.

Beginning in 2011, Medicare will start providing a free annual wellness and prevention plan visit, and new health coverage will be required to cover preventive services at little or no cost to patients. To fund some of these reforms, the government will begin collecting an annual fee on pharmaceutical companies determined by market share.

The biggest changes are scheduled to occur after 2012. Thus, if President Obama is re-elected, or Democrats retain control of either house of Congress, 2014 will become the most significant period of implementing health care reform, as it's the year when state health insurance exchanges for small businesses and individuals are scheduled to begin.

Persons with incomes up to 400 percent of federal poverty level become eligible for health care tax credits, which will be provided as a refundable tax credit. Health insurers will be prohibited from excluding persons with pre-existing conditions from coverage, and employers with 50 or more workers who fail to offer coverage will be fined. In following years, other changes are slated, the most notable an excise tax on "high cost" employer-provided plans (the so-called "Cadillac plans") will be imposed.

While portions of ObamaCare are embedded in the way America conducts health care business, we'll have to wait and see what happens this year and in 2012.